Palabras clave
CO2e
IPAT
STIRPAT
curva de Kuznets
convergencia
Cómo citar
Resumen
El principal objetivo del artículo es analizar algunos hechos estilizados de la trayectoria de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, provenientes del consumo de energía (CO2ee), y construir escenarios prospectivos para América Latina y el Caribe que permitan ilustrar la urgencia, magnitud, posibilidades y limitaciones del esfuerzo de mitigación requerido para alcanzar la meta de una economía carbono neutral entre 2050-2070. La construcción de estos escenarios se basa en los modelos IPAT y STIRPAT, así como en las estimaciones de las hipótesis de la EKC y de la convergencia de emisiones entre países. Los principales resultados indican que las emisiones de CO2ee están estrechamente asociadas a la evolución del PIB, PIB per cápita, población y consumo de energía, y que el actual proceso de desacoplamiento en la trayectoria de las emisiones de CO2ee, provenientes de sus principales variables determinantes, es insuficiente para cumplir la meta de una economía carbono neutral a 2050.
Citas
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