Palabras clave
exportaciones manufactureras
balanza comercial
especialización vertical
flujos de capital
inversión
tipo de cambio real
política monetaria
México
Cómo citar
Resumen
Luego de una desaceleración de dos años, en 2009 la economía mexicana sufrió una contracción solo igualada, en su historia moderna, por la registrada en 1995, a raíz de la crisis del peso de diciembre de 1994. Al igual que en esta última crisis, la economía repuntó de inmediato atrás, registrando un crecimiento positivo en 2010. Sin embargo, en comparación con el fuerte repunte de las exportaciones, la recuperación general fue débil, con el PIB y la producción industrial superando (apenas, en este último caso) sus niveles previos a la crisis recién en 2011. Motivados por estas observaciones, el documento estudia los canales de transmisión detrás de la recesión de 2009 en México, las razones de la debilidad de la recuperación de 2010-2011 y, con base en ese análisis, algunos de los riesgos que enfrenta el país para sostener un mayor crecimiento económico en el futuro.
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