Resumen
En este artículo estimamos el multiplicador local del empleo en el sector comerciable sobre el empleo en el sector no comerciable en México, para el periodo 2000-2010. Usando un estimador de variables instrumentales, nuestros resultados indican que un cambio exógeno de una unidad en el empleo en el sector comerciable genera entre 1.8 y 2.6 empleos adicionales en el sector no comerciable. De estos, entre 1 y 1.5 corresponden al sector formal. Nuestros resultados implican una oportunidad para los hacedores de política que persiguen estrategias de desarrollo, pues la prevalencia de una economía altamente informal se considera frecuentemente un impedimento para el desarrollo económico. Nuestro estudio señala que la creación de empleos en el sector comerciable es una posible estrategia para incrementar el empleo formal en el sector no comerciable. Nuestro análisis también revela que el incremento en el empleo para trabajadores con más de nueve años de educación es dos veces más grande que para aquéllos con menos de nueve años de educación.
Citas
Abadie, A., Athey, S., Imbens, G. W., & Wooldridge, J. (2017). When should you adjust standard errors for clustering? (No. w24003). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Bartik, T. J. (1991). Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?. Books from Upjohn Press.
Black, D., McKinnish, T., & Sanders, S. (2005). The economic impact of the coal boom and bust. The Economic Journal, 115(503), 449-476.
Blanchard O. & Katz, L. F. (1992). Regional evolutions. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, 23(1).
Cameron, A. C., & Miller, D. L. (2015). A practitioner’s guide to cluster-robust inference. Journal of human resources, 50(2), 317-372.
Cortez, W. W. (2001). What is behind increasing wage inequality in Mexico?. World Development, 29(11), 1905-1922.
De Blasio, G., & Menon, C. (2011). Local effects of manufacturing employment growth in Italy. Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia, 101-112.
Faggio, G., & Overman, H. (2014). The effect of public sector employment on local labour markets. Journal of urban economics, 79, 91-107.
Gerolimetto, M., & Magrini, S. (2014). Spatial analysis of employment multipliers in Spanish labor markets. Rivista Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, 68(3/4), 87-94.
Goldsmith-Pinkham, P., Sorkin, I., & Swift, H. (2020). Bartik instruments: What, when, why, and how. American Economic Review, 110(8), 2586-2624.
International Labour Organization. (2012). Measuring informality: A statistical manual on the informal sector and informal employment. Geneva: International Labour Office.
INEGI (2000). 2000 Population and Housing Census. Retrieved from www.inegi.org.mx
INEGI (2015). 2015 Intercensal Survey. Retrieved from www.inegi.org.mx
INEGI (2012). Informal Employment in Mexico. Press release 449/12.
Jaeger, D. A., Ruist, J., & Stuhler, J. (2018). Shift-share instruments and the impact of immigration (No. w24285). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Jensen, J. B., Kletzer, L. G., Bernstein, J., & Feenstra, R. C. (2005, January). Tradable services: Understanding the scope and impact of services offshoring [with comments and discussion]. In Brookings trade forum (pp. 75-133). Brookings Institution Press.
Kazekami, S. (2017). Local multipliers, mobility, and agglomeration economies. Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, 56(3), 489-513.
Levy Algazi, S. (2018). Under-Rewarded Efforts: The Elusive Quest for Prosperity in Mexico. Inter-American Development Bank.
Loayza, N., & Sugawara, N. (2009). El sector informal en México: Hechos y explicaciones fundamentales. El Trimestre Económico, 887-920.
Macedo, G., & Monasterio, L. (2016). Local multiplier of industrial employment: Brazilian mesoregions (2000-2010). Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 36(4), 827-839.
Gerolimetto, M., & Magrini, S. (2011). A spatial nonparametric analysis of local multipliers. European Regional Science Association.
Moreno‐Brid, J. C. (2013). Industrial Policy: A Missing Link in Mexico's Quest for Export‐led Growth. Latin American Policy, 4(2), 216-237.
Moreno‐Brid, J. C., Santamaría, J., & Rivas Valdivia, J. C. (2005). Industrialization and economic growth in Mexico after NAFTA: the road travelled. Development and change, 36(6), 1095-1119.
Moretti, E. (2010). Local multipliers. American Economic Review, 100(2), 373-77.
Moretti, E., & Thulin, P. (2013). Local multipliers and human capital in the United States and Sweden. Industrial and Corporate Change, 22(1), 339-362.
Roback, J. (1982). Wages, rents, and the quality of life. Journal of political Economy, 90(6), 1257-1278.
Rosen, S. (1979) Wage-Based Indexes of Urban Quality of Life, in Current Issues in Urban Economics, edited by Peter Mieszkowski and Mahlon Straszheim. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1979.
Pereira, M. & Soloaga, I. (2013). Local Multipliers and the Informal Sector in Mexico 2000-2010. Working Paper 0513, Universidad Iberoamericana.
Spence, M., & Hlatshwayo, S. (2012). The evolving structure of the American economy and the employment challenge. Comparative Economic Studies, 54(4), 703-738.
Su, Y. (2017) Local Multiplier Effects, Working Paper, Stanford University, Department of Economics, U. S.
Van Dijk, J. (2014). Local multipliers in OECD regions. Working Paper, Oxford University, Department of Economics, United Kingdom.
van Dijk, J. (2017). Local employment multipliers in US cities. Journal of Economic Geography, 17(2), 465-487.
Van Dijk, J. (2018). Robustness of econometrically estimated local multipliers across different methods and data. Journal of Regional Science, 58(2), 281-294.